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DTN Midday Livestock Comments          08/19 12:18

   Strong Gains Continue Late Morning 

   Active gains have quickly redeveloped in all livestock trade as hog futures 
lead the charge higher with traders backing away from liquidation that 
developed late Friday. Firm underlying support is moving into the cattle 
futures trade Monday.

By Rick Kment
DTN Analyst

General Comments

   Active gains have quickly moved back into cattle and hog futures Monday 
morning. The entire complex still remains in a bearish market trend given sharp 
losses in each of the markets over the last week. Cattle futures are regaining 
market support following aggressive moves higher in wholesale beef values over 
the last week. Hog futures still remain extremely technically weak, but the 
complex remains oversold, which is allowing for sharp gains to develop Monday 
morning. Corn futures are lower in light to moderate morning trade. September 
corn futures are 6 3/4 cents lower. Stock markets are higher in light trade. 
Dow Jones is 251 points higher with NASDAQ up 34 points. 


   Moderate to strong gains have redeveloped. October futures still remain 
stuck below $100 per cwt with initial buying Monday morning slowing as 
increased volume moves into the complex. Live cattle futures are expected to 
focus more on market stability following last week's pressure, likely limiting 
aggressive gains through the end of the month. With packer margins improving 
significantly last week due to aggressive boxed beef gains and lower cash 
cattle prices, there will be even more incentive to offset any production 
losses at the Kansas Tyson plant with increased chain speed and active weekend 
production schedules. Cash cattle activity remains quiet with show list 
distribution and inventory taking developing through the morning. Active trade 
is likely to be pushed off until late in the week. Boxed Beef cut-outs at 
midday are mixed, $0.88 higher (select) and down 0.16 (choice) with moderate 
light of 26 total loads reported (14 loads of choice cuts, 8 loads of select 
cuts, no loads of trimmings, 4 loads of ground beef).


   Triple-digit gains are holding in feeder cattle trade as grain markets have 
once again focused on increased market pressure in both corn and soybean 
markets. At least temporarily, the focus has moved away from lower production 
levels of corn through the end of the year, which is helping to solidify buying 
in nearby feeder cattle trade. Lower market volatility is seen in the cattle 
complex as the packing industry becomes more accustomed to shipping cattle to 
other plants following the Tyson plant fire. Upside market potential still 
remains uncertain as traders still focus on logistical challenges through the 
entire industry. 


   Strong buyer support moved back into the complex early Monday morning 
following limit losses Friday. The technical pressure seen through the entire 
complex added increased weakness to the market and tested year-long lows in 
October futures. Although the tone of the market remains weak, trades appear to 
be focused on regaining solid footing based on market stability in pork values 
and potential domestic demand continuing strong over the next couple of months 
despite trade concerns with China. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct 
morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is down $2.27 at $67.55 per 
cwt with the range from $59 to $72.50 on 4,922 head reported sold. Pork values 
firmed following recent wholesale pork pressure last week. Pork cutouts added 
$0.38 per cwt at $86.64 per cwt with 124 loads traded. Lean hog index for 8/15 
is $79.024, down 0.32, with a projected two-day index is $78.55, down 0.47.

   Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com 


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